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December 08, 2004
2005 Predications: Coffee Talk with Jeff Pulver
It seems to be that time of year again; the time for people to share their predictions for the year ahead. After reviewing the results from my foggy crystal ball, the following are my predictions for 2005.
1) 2005 will be the year VoIP in the USA crosses the “early-adopter chasm”.
2) Broadband penetration will begin to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America’s mediocre global standing in broadband penetration.
3) While we will see the restart of VoIP IPOs, we will also see some VoIP startups burning-out due to lack of marketing funds and customer base … and vision.
4) 2005 will be the year of still more major carrier VoIP announcements, as well as very significant product announcements from major non-carriers (including software and Internet giants).
5) As the debate grows over the meaning and application of “Net Neutrality” and consumer empowerment, new battle lines and tangling alliances will form between and among carriers, vendors, application providers. Debate will grow over the continuing role for unaffiliated, non-carrier VoIP providers.
6) (a) The FCC will not establish an IP-Communications Bureau.
(b) The FCC will release an Order in the IP-Enabled Services Proceeding setting forth a broad hands-off approach for VoIP.
(c) The industry will spend several years sorting out what it all means.
7) Governments around the world will take a closer look towards regulating VoIP. VoIP providers will respond by stepping up efforts at industry-based solutions for many of the social issues confronting the industry (e.g., emergency response, lawful intercept).
8) Carriers that have not adopted a VoIP strategy by 2005 might not be around in 2007.
9) Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace.
10) ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US will continue to lag.
11) Open Source communications continues to gain momentum. The effects will be felt in 12-18 months
12) IM and incidental communications and applications (such as “presence”) continues to grow unregulated.
13) Universal Service will move to a connections-based system.
14) Access rates and inter-carrier compensation will trend down, although we will not yet see the long-anticipated unified intercarrier comp reform in '05.
15) Sides are further drawn as Congressional debate grows over the likely rewrite of the Communications Act of 20xx. We find out who our friends are and who was just giving lip-service.
16) If 2004 was the year of WiFi, then 2005 might be the year of Bluetooth. 2005 will see the emergence of the first dual, or multi-mode, phones capable of switching from WiFi to mobile wireless (and perhaps to landline).
Posted by jeff on December 8, 2004 07:11 AM | Permalink
Additional resources: #140conf events | Watch the Jeff Pulver Show | Jeff's Qik Videos
Comments
Thanks for the breakdown of VOIP in 2005. Do you think Level3 will be a big player in the next year. I've read 2 recent articles on your site about Level3. Level3 doesn't seem to offer its own Voip phone service but they are a carrier for potential VOIP service.
How well do you think Level3 success will correlated with VOIP success?
Posted by: Justin Pfister at December 8, 2004 06:57 PM
Jeff, I received some comments on your Item 8, concerning incumbents who don't adapt going out of business. Since I don't assume it was merely a capricious statement, what level of VoIP adoption were you referring to? I've posted your predictions to SI (where your absence has been felt, btw;) and to the Gilder list. Frank
Posted by: Frank Coluccio at December 8, 2004 02:59 PM
And here I thought you were going to mention JetBlue expanding WiFi to the cabin's of the planes.
Good list. I'll blog it.
Posted by: Andy Abramson at December 8, 2004 10:05 AM