The Jeff Pulver Blog: Looking back at my 2005 Predictions for the VoIP Industy:

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December 05, 2005

Looking back at my 2005 Predictions for the VoIP Industy:

It seems to be that time of year again; the time for people to share their predictions for the year ahead. After reviewing the results from my foggy crystal ball, I will share my predicitions for 2006, but not until taking a look at how my predicitions for 2005 held up:

Looking back at some of my 2005 predictions, it seems that some where correct while others were more optimistic than I had originally thought.,

Some of my predicitions for 2005:

1) 2005 will be the year VoIP in the USA crosses the “early-adopter chasm”. (happened.)

2) Broadband penetration will begin to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America’s mediocre global standing in broadband penetration. (happened, unfortuantely.)

3) While we will see the restart of VoIP IPOs, we will also see some VoIP startups burning-out due to lack of marketing funds and customer base … and vision. (still waiting for the pure-play VoIP IPOs.)

4) 2005 will be the year of still more major carrier VoIP announcements, as well as very significant product announcements from major non-carriers (including software and Internet giants). (happened.)

5) As the debate grows over the meaning and application of “Net Neutrality” and consumer empowerment, new battle lines and tangling alliances will form between and among carriers, vendors, application providers. Debate will grow over the continuing role for unaffiliated, non-carrier VoIP providers. (unforutnatelly right on the money...)

6)(a) The FCC will not establish an IP-Communications Bureau. (correct)
(b) The FCC will release an Order in the IP-Enabled Services Proceeding setting forth a broad hands-off approach for VoIP. (uh, ok. so I was really off base here...)
(c) The industry will spend several years sorting out what it all means.

7) Governments around the world will take a closer look towards regulating VoIP. VoIP providers will respond by stepping up efforts at industry-based solutions for many of the social issues confronting the industry (e.g., emergency response, lawful intercept). (happened. sort of.)

8) Carriers that have not adopted a VoIP strategy by 2005 might not be around in 2007 (prediction appears to be on target.)

9) Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace. (happened.)

10) ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US will continue to lag. (true enough.)

11) Open Source communications continues to gain momentum. The effects will be felt in 12-18 months (I think this is happening -- my timeline might have been a little opimistic.)

12) IM and incidental communications and applications (such as “presence”) continues to grow unregulated. (It looks like I might be getting this one wrong -- unless the IM platform prociders step up lobbying efforts.)

13) Universal Service will move to a connections-based system. (not yet, but still likely, although I fear the reform will be done in such a way as to handicap unaffiliated VoIP providers.)

14) Access rates and inter-carrier compensation will trend down, although we will not yet see the long-anticipated unified intercarrier comp reform in '05. ("mixed results -- the FCC has continued to punt on the inter-carrier compensation issues -- its failure to explicitly state that VoIP providers should not pay economically-unjustified monopoly rates to last-mile access providers has curbed VoIP deployment.)

15) Sides are further drawn as Congressional debate grows over the likely rewrite of the Communications Act of 20xx. We find out who our friends are and who was just giving lip-service. (correct, unfortuantely.)

16) If 2004 was the year of WiFi, then 2005 might be the year of Bluetooth. 2005 will see the emergence of the first dual, or multi-mode, phones capable of switching from WiFi to mobile wireless (and perhaps to landline). (maybe in 2006?)

Tags: voip, fcc, carriers, e911, CALEA, jeff pulver

Posted by jeff on December 5, 2005 04:23 PM | Permalink

Additional resources: #140conf events | Watch the Jeff Pulver Show | Jeff's Qik Videos

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