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December 06, 2005

2006 Predictions for IP Communications Industry: Coffee Talk with Jeff Pulver

It seems to be that time of year again; the time for people to share their predictions for the year ahead. After reviewing my accuracy for 2005, the following are my predictions for 2006:

1) Broadband penetration will continue to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America's mediocre global standing in broadband penetration. We, however, begin to appreciate the benefits of Metcalf's Law, as broadband penetration snowballs and opens the door for an unprecedented surge in creativity and uptake of new Internet applications.

2) Lobbyists and Policymakers in the US will continue to try to apply legacy rules and regulations on Internet based applications, be it voice, television or radio.

3) In the US, the remaining "Baby Bells" will grow up and hold a virtual "family reunion" of sorts, which will, in effect, establish "Walled Gardens" in their collective broadband product offerings. Expect other incumbent operators around the world to join this implicit cartel. In parallel, Wireless Operators worldwide will continue to roll out their 3G strategies and grow their own Walled Gardens, leaving both academics and the Internet pioneers wondering "what ever happened to the dream of the Arpanet?"

4) The FCC will attempt to extend its definition of indecency laws to the Internet, Cable and Satellite networks.

5) (a) As filmmakers start to feel comfortable with the concept of going "direct to the Net", 2006 will be the year when this starts to become the norm, rather than the exception.
(b) Look for "Television" shows to premiere first on the Internet and then appear on Broadcast TV, Cable or Satellite.
(c) Look for more TV shows to be become downloadable for viewing on personal communication devices.

6) VoIP peering will continue to happen between carriers, but the business models driving peering will not be worked out until 2007 or beyond. Look for Enterprises to explore the benefits of federating their communication networks.

7) There will be at least two major acquisitions in the billion-dollar-plus price range, matching or exceeding eBay's purchase price to acquire Skype. Major media and Internet companies will announce blended, transformational IP-based communications plays.

8) Hurricanes such as Katrina and other natural disasters in the U.S. and around the world will compel the U.S. and other governments to look to the Internet and IP-based communications as the vehicle to improve emergency response and post-catastrophe communications.

9) The Internet application providers, such as Google, yahoo!, eBay, Amazon will increase their presence and influence in DC and on communications policy.

10) The sides in the communications policy wars will become more apparent, with Internet Access Providers on the one side and Internet Application Providers on the other.

11) Governments around the world will look harder at VoIP regulation, with an eye towards imposing social obligations such as emergency response, lawful intercept and disabilities access. We will see a deepening divide between those countries that nurture the emerging industry and technology and those that stifle innovation by imposition of unnecessary, overly-broad and economically-debilitating one-size-fits-all regulation.

12) Look for the support of "voice" to become part of the eCommerce strategy for many Websites.

13) Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace and may also continue to outpace the growth of consumer voice over broadband services sold to consumers.

14) ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US will still lag behind.

15) The RIM (Research in Motion) patent challenge will become a boon for integrated IP Communication enabled devices.


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Posted by jeff on December 6, 2005 05:51 AM | Permalink

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SWANsat to Turn Earth into Wi-Fi Hotspot

Imagine a series of at least three geosynchronous orbital satellites providing wireless Internet access to the entire world. That’s exactly what a project called SWANsat or Super-Wide Area Network Satellite plans to do by the year 2011. They intend to be a global broadband Internet service provider that can facilitate up to 600 million connections per satellite. All you need is a handheld mobile device to connect to the system.

The system is being designed by a collective of inventors, builders, GPS and Iridium satellite owners including the CEO of Western Digital. Many more companies and individuals are also driving the SWANsat project including a UN task force.

Posted by: wmt at September 11, 2006 02:54 AM

enjoyed you write up very great info who would you suggest to play in the market with your perdictions on fall and winter months.

Posted by: dave merino at July 11, 2006 02:35 PM

..watch outside the US as more and more cities and communities around the world say "enough is enough" and decide facilitate the deployment of digital network technologies in a manner that leaves the value and benefit with end users rather than operators. Such Open Public Local Access Networks will start being used for much MUCH more than simply accessing the internet and third party services!

Posted by: Malcolm Matson at February 1, 2006 12:19 PM

I looked at the last one and then had an evil thought (apologies to Google) that RIM might not be so keen to have all these patents thrown out. By paying a huge sum and setting a precedent on the validity, they have effectively put up a huge barrier to entry for anyone who wants to compete with them!
Hmmm, here's wishing that 2006 sees some radical patent reform, though 2016 may even be pushing it.

Posted by: Paul Jardine at January 3, 2006 02:30 AM

Popcorn sticks in my teeth.

Posted by: C willett at December 13, 2005 03:25 PM

Here it is almost Christmas (or The Holiday Season depending on ... well depending) and all we poor regulatory types get in our stockings is another lump of high sulfur content coal. You make us sound like grinches for "continuing to try to apply legacy rules" (#2). Oh if only human nature didn't require such onerous rules. Here in Washington State we are continuing to look at lowering the regulatory "bar" as it were, to make our regulatory rules meaningful but not overly onerous while making sure that the social imperative that all citizens poor or rich have access to affordable voice telecommunications is not broken. We're not there yet, but we're trying. Don't forget that given the issues that you point out: the coming Baby Bells virtual family reunion (#3) and issues between providers of access and applications(net neutrality #9), you will find that state regulatory agencies may well be the industry's next best friend. Fighting for total removal of regulation is like "traipsing down a flower-strewn path unpricked by thorns of reason". Hope to see you in San Jose. -- Bob Williamson

Posted by: Bob Williamson at December 12, 2005 12:22 PM

I would add that satellite will gain increasing commercial traction as an less-costly, more reliable alternative to terrestrial broadband delivery, especially for emerging applications like digital signage for advertisers and digital cinema for theater-goers. And, as Katrina clearly demonstrated, this reliability extends to government/military first-responder environments where terrestrial infrastructure is often compromised.

Posted by: Brian Muys at December 8, 2005 09:44 AM

I tend to agree with these predictions, on the subject of 'the download before they air' programs I fully expect to see the mp3 download on demand model used.

I have a prediction of my own: expect to see an escalation in the use of DRM on IP to the extent of customer abuse and invasion. I base this on the Sony/RIAA root-kit fiasco and the concern over the growing ease of perfect reproduction and transport.

Posted by: PokerProf at December 6, 2005 05:38 PM

What? No fearless prediction on Flushing's favorite residents?

Posted by: David Capo at December 6, 2005 12:34 PM

I'm disappointed that my two hot issues didn't make the list (i)encryption; and (ii) a solution for wifi voip handsets - see
http://www.gahtan.com/techlawblog/2005/12/06/voip-roadblocks/ - Not disappointed in you, just that the industry doesn't seem to be working hard to solve these two problems.

Posted by: Alan Gahtan at December 6, 2005 11:57 AM

As for "broadband penetration", this phrase is getting annoying. How about lighting up what's already out there!

For example, SBC/AT&T has a remote terminal just 1500 feet from our home, completely ready to do DSL. But according to the local SBC DSL tech, he has not been given the green light to make the final connection from the CO. Anticipated turn on is Feb 2007!

I asked the tech, "is this done to keep other providers out until "things" change." He just smiled and shrugged his shoulders.

Secondly, SBC has some 21 + million lines capable of providing DSL. This is from our data base we had in 2003 when trying to set up a wholesale program. They have according to their PR, 6.5 million turn up.

So point being, it's not a need for more, it's a need to light up what's available NOW!

Posted by: Frank Muto at December 6, 2005 08:46 AM

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