The Jeff Pulver Blog: Looking back at my 2006 Predictions for the IP Communications Industry:

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December 04, 2006

Looking back at my 2006 Predictions for the IP Communications Industry:

It seems to be that time of year again; the time for people to share their predictions for the year ahead. After reviewing the results from my foggy crystal ball, I will share my predictions for 2007, but not until taking a look at how my Predictions for 2006 held up:

Looking back at some of my 2006 predictions, it seems that some were correct while others were more optimistic than I had originally thought.

Some of my predicitions for 2006:

1) Broadband penetration will continue to snowball in the US, but not at a pace fast enough to raise America's mediocre global standing in broadband penetration. We, however, begin to appreciate the benefits of Metcalf's Law, as broadband penetration snowballs and opens the door for an unprecedented surge in creativity and uptake of new Internet applications. (Unfortunately this was true)

2) Lobbyists and Policymakers in the US will continue to try to apply legacy rules and regulations on Internet based applications, be it voice, television or radio. (happened)

3) In the US, the remaining "Baby Bells" will grow up and hold a virtual "family reunion" of sorts, which will, in effect, establish "Walled Gardens" in their collective broadband product offerings. Expect other incumbent operators around the world to join this implicit cartel. In parallel, Wireless Operators worldwide will continue to roll out their 3G strategies and grow their own Walled Gardens, leaving both academics and the Internet pioneers wondering "what ever happened to the dream of the Arpanet?" (AT&T is trying to merge with BellSouth and Net Neutrality became a HUGE issue during 2006.)

4) The FCC will attempt to extend its definition of indecency laws to the Internet, Cable and Satellite networks. (Lucky for us this did not happen.)

5) (A) As filmmakers start to feel comfortable with the concept of going "direct to the Net", 2006 will be the year when this starts to become the norm, rather than the exception. (started but still early)

(b) Look for "Television" shows to premiere first on the Internet and then appear on Broadcast TV, Cable or Satellite. (didn't happen as fast as I expected it would)

6) VoIP peering will continue to happen between carriers, but the business models driving peering will not be worked out until 2007 or beyond. Look for Enterprises to explore the benefits of federating their communication networks. (2006 Happened as expected)

7) There will be at least two major acquisitions in the billion-dollar-plus price range, matching or exceeding eBay's purchase price to acquire Skype. Major media and Internet companies will announce blended, transformational IP-based communications plays. (YouTube was acquired by Google and Facebook is still in the wings)

8) Hurricanes such as Katrina and other natural disasters in the U.S. and around the world will compel the U.S. and other governments to look to the Internet and IP-based communications as the vehicle to improve emergency response and post-catastrophe communications. (while this didn't happen, progress is being made.)

9) The Internet application providers, such as Google, yahoo!, eBay, Amazon will increase their presence and influence in DC and on communications policy. (should have happened.)

10) The sides in the communications policy wars will become more apparent, with Internet Access Providers on the one side and Internet Application Providers on the other. (Net Neutrality Anyone?)

11) Governments around the world will look harder at VoIP regulation, with an eye towards imposing social obligations such as emergency response, lawful intercept and disabilities access. We will see a deepening divide between those countries that nurture the emerging industry and technology and those that stifle innovation by imposition of unnecessary, overly-broad and economically-debilitating one-size-fits-all regulation. (unfortunately true)

12) Look for the support of "voice" to become part of the eCommerce strategy for many Websites. (happened)

13) Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace and may also continue to outpace the growth of consumer voice over broadband services sold to consumers. (happened)

14) ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US will still lag behind. (unfortunately true)

15) The RIM (Research in Motion) patent challenge will become a boon for integrated IP Communication enabled devices. (RIM market share continued to grow in 2006.)

Tags: VoIP, Jeff Pulver