The Jeff Pulver Blog: Thinking about the Future of TV

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October 19, 2008

Thinking about the Future of TV

As Anna Prior notes in her Wall Street Journal story, How to Find Your Favorite TV Shows Online, "There are more opportunities than ever to watch television shows free online."

Reading the story I was reminded of the reason why I decided to launch PrimeTimeRewind,TV earlier this year.

In an age where the major US based television networks are providing access to their full length prime-time television shows, I wanted to provide a network agnostic platform to help people navigate to the Prime TimeTV shows they wanted to watch. And this is exactly what PrimeTimeRewind.TV does. Since our alpha launch earlier this year, more and more people are discovering PrimeTimeRewind and are using us as a way to keep up with the latest episodes of the 2008/09 television season.

As the current generation of 16-24 year olds continue to consume Television on the Net, there are mega trends emerging that will forever change the traditional TV industry and will effect the future of advertising and more.

One trend which I first saw happening a few years ago was the advent of TV becoming an “application” rather than a “service.” We now live in an age where consumers no longer need to own a television, an antenna or a TV tuner to watch television content. All someone needs is broadband internet access. The implications of this is huge.

As more and more commercial grade TV content is consumed on the Internet, we will see a shifting of power and influence by the companies who own television networks to the studios which create high quality content. “Content is King” is something which may be understood by many people but seemingly can only be delivered by a few.

The coming disruption in the marketplace will provide a channel for the studios to directly "broadcast" to their ultimate consumers fresh new prime-time TV episodes and this will rattle business models which have evolved during the past 50 years.

Some of this will be slowed down due to the existing relationships between the studios and the broadcasters and the cable companies. And it is possible that it might take an act of Congress to truly liberate some of these relationships because they go that deep.

From a content perspective, these ideas should be looked at on a forward looking basis since most of the content of the past is bound by relationships which while they may no longer make sense in this new world, they were written a time before such innovation and change was ever thought about. Or maybe it was that the lawyers for the cable companies were visionaries and they knew the day would come where their models would get challenged and they wanted to protect themselves.

While there will always be a continued need in both rural and metropolitan areas to have broadcast television stations, over time as more and more consumers gain broadband internet access, the viewership will drop so significantly that the business model of owning a TV station may one day get busted. What may save broadcast TV stations is the resale of their spectrum to next-generation communication companies who would use such spectrum in the roll out of future services.

And as the content which today may be only viewable on Cable TV get liberated and becomes also available legally on the Internet (this is happening already) it is only a matter of time for Cable TV and IPTV providers to find themselves disintermediated. Consumers will purchase high speed internet access from a Cable TV / IPTV company but will realize that they don’t have a real need to purchase even basic TV services from them. (for more see: Internet TV may post threat to Cable Companies by 2012).

The future of TV will be interesting. The media companies which embrace this disruption rather than fight it will be best positioned to profit from it. But expect to see a lot of resistance at first by the companies who don’t want to see this change ever happen.
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Like it or not, Television has been Disrupted. It is just a matter of time before the media industry recognizes this.

Tags: Internet TV, Apple TV, Anna Prior, Cable TV, Jeff Pulver

Please feel free to share your thoughts and leave a comment.

Posted by jeff on October 19, 2008 09:31 AM | Permalink

Additional resources: #140conf events | Watch the Jeff Pulver Show | Jeff's Qik Videos

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Posted by: سعيد at October 21, 2008 11:50 AM

Hey Jeff,

Bravo! While consumers put on a second pot, some in the industry are just discovering the smell of java wafting from the kitchen.

People want it, when they want it, how they want it, however much they want it. The phrase is "content providers" not "content dictators".

Anyone who refuses to grasp our user-generated world (which is not limited to 16-24s) will have their noses presssed against the screen wondering what happened.

We need to integrate all that we do (content, clients, user experiences). That continues with asking a lot of questions of those who want to consumer the content we "provide".

It has never been about users, eyeballs and viewers - it's about a community which decides trends and tastes and what the choices looks like in their own environment.

Accurate and more fragmented audience metrics are the future. Soon to be gone are inflated generalized (inaccuate) metrics which may have given us a good night's sleep in the past.

Posted by: Kneale Mann at October 20, 2008 02:22 PM

Jeff, good points but consider the following- I still like to watch good old regular TV. Why? Because even on my new MacBookPRO, you cant replicate the experience of a 54" screen, HDTV, and 5.1 stereo. I dont know if this is a case of pure "disruption." Perhaps more in the vein of "expansion" would be more appropriate.

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Posted by: gooooooooooooooood girl at October 20, 2008 06:54 AM

Thanks for the post. As always, fascinating.

I can attest some of the changes in the way I consume content. In my case, it's the result of necessity. Being an Israeli family living abroad (but still very much connected to the Israeli culture), we watch our favorite TV series, available online. Needless to say that we watch it on our main living-room display. We're greatful that this content was liberated and could make its way across the Atlantic.
And sure - that display, in addition to the VGA connection is also connected to the cable set-top box. But for us, "watching TV" refers to playing the online content (on my laptop, living room display or iPod in an airplane) just as much as it refers to the kids watching the favorite cartoon on Sunday morning when broadcasted in the kids channel.
Which raises some thoughts about the "channel" term (seems to anachronistic now) - which may deserve a separate post.

Posted by: Eitan at October 19, 2008 10:22 PM

Tried it out Jeff, was a bit disappointed in the very slow, hard to use flash UI. Would much rather have a fast Ajax UI or the simple ability to type in the name of a show or search query. Think google style, lean and mean, not that cube.

I am using it on an older, slower 2.6ghz computer but nothing should be that crawlingly slow, not even on an older computer. It made me give up.

Posted by: Brad Templeton at October 19, 2008 10:20 PM

Content and Carriage have been the competing contenders for King-ness for decades. While internet or online carriage certainly has more interaction and personalization potential than broadcast carriage methods, complex content licensing and distribution challenges remain.

The next contender for King-ness is going to be Context, specifically content and carriage providers knowing the current or preferred context of a viewer or audience. Audiences (also known as customers) ultimately choose the King, not technology, broadcasters, advertisers, networks or studios.

Posted by: Tom at October 19, 2008 06:09 PM

I find a mobile broadcast oppty just as distruptive. As TV stations shift to digital b'cast, their current spectrum licenses and the improved compression technologies could enable broadcast in multiple modes. Some handsets are already capable of receiving these local TV signals (currently outside of US only).

Posted by: Edw3rd at October 19, 2008 05:06 PM

I think the tipping point with this may well be WiMAX, if it ever gets into the hands of consumers in the same way as 802.11a/b/g/n. Given that, the +2 generations of devices from Sony, Apple, Google and RIM will likely all speak it, both as a WLAN and a WWAN/telephony transport, and everything will end up being applications of some kind—be it TV, telecoms, or something else. I foresee a eventual decoupling of 'T-Mobile the telephony provider' and 'T-Mobile the bandwidth provider', with the net neutrality “debate” still raging on and on.

When this will happen is something I'm less sure about. My current thinking is between 8 and 12 years from now before it hits consumers in a big way, but I think we'll see lots of viable disruptive models between now and then.

—Mo (twitter.com/iWork)

Posted by: Mo at October 19, 2008 11:48 AM

The annoying thing is the localization. While web as a whole is contributing to globalization, the web TV, at least most of the mentioned links, operate only within the US.
Disrupt this, I dare you. :-)

Posted by: Or-Tal at October 19, 2008 11:39 AM

We have been trained to watch TV ON a TV, and in our living rooms for decades and I do not suspect this will change anytime soon. Yes, I do realize that more and more people are viewing traditional TV/Cable offerings via their PC's, cellphones,etc. but that will never displace our Living rooms.

Looking at it from the living room view, I believe the next battle will be won via the set top boxes (forward thinking social companies like Cisco who purchased Scientific Atlanta will drive this). So get ready to view,collaborate and interact with your TV set just how you do today on your PC. Coming first...widgets for Facebook, Twitter,email and other services.

twitter.com/A_F

Posted by: Andrew Finkle at October 19, 2008 11:37 AM

Ooops - I 'mis-typed' there - allow me a correction to my previous post:

50 years

not 500

That would have been cool - Shakespeare doing Playhouse 90 - but no - 50 years of addiction to the glass teat.

Thanks.

Posted by: Robbo at October 19, 2008 11:03 AM

Great post, Jeff.

It's true, as McLuhan said, that as new media emerges the old media gets subsumed and becomes the 'content' of the new. We are seeing that happen now, very quickly, almost like one of those time-lapse films of a flower unfolding.

I don't think the recently acquired (500 yrs.) urge to sit and vegetate in front of the "glass teat" wil ever leave us. The myriad of ways in which we can indulge ourselves in this past time will, per force, alter the experience itself.

And it IS inevitable.

I do have concern over how screwed up things can get as the large and powerful media companies do their worst to subvert and distort the law to shore up their dying business models and over-arching control of communications and culture. Ultimately 'Change' - profound change - will prevail, but the loss and damage done to fundamental freedoms of discourse and expression may prove to be equally profound.

Keep up the great work.

Cheers.

Posted by: Robbo at October 19, 2008 11:00 AM

This is very interesting and I'd just been thinking about this the other day. I mean now you can download TV shows on itunes. And many people prefer to do that and watch it when THEY want to, as opposed to being home at a certain time to watch, or setting their TIVO, or setting a VCR (if they're still using one of those dinosaurs.)

This seems to be happening in all facets of entertainment that traditionally was so impossible to get out to people without much larger companies faciliating it.

We see it in Television, but we've also seen it in music, where we had big powerful record companies and record stores, and now most artists are putting up a myspace page and putting their music on itunes. No big company required.

And it will take much much longer to be considered "legitimate" but it's happening in publishing as well. As the technology changes, as more people buy ebooks or kindle books, or just plain shop on Amazon, old models of Giant publisher plus chain bookstore absolutely necessary, is crumbling.

As technology continues to improve, we may have a time when Print on demand book machines are in bookstores and if you know what book you want, you can have it on demand right that minute, no waiting for an amazon order to come to your door even.

The world is changing, in all realms of entertainment. And all big businesses that used to be absolutely necessary and relevant are feeling the heat in one way or another.

I don't think the POD book machine idea is as far away as some people want to believe. THe other day I was walking through the mall and saw a giant vending machine for ProActive skincare. You literally put your card in, like an ATM machine, you pay out of your account, and your skincare drops down the shoot. Instant. Out of a machine. No shipping, no sales person.

Posted by: Zoe Winters at October 19, 2008 10:57 AM

Hi Jeff - great post and certainly a plan which might one day upset some of those big boys.

However, as I typically do - I'll throw out another idea for the future - I'm thinking that I would rather have people engaging in meaningful conversation online, learning new things, swapping ideas, getting to know the people of the world - rather than just sitting around consuming re-hashed content with an alternative delivery mechanism.

Having said that, I'll add that I do realize that a lot of us recharge our mental batteries while sitting around watching a sitcom or something - but for the most part TV and its content are just large time-sucks and to extend that to other delivery devices....well, it just seems that we could do something better with our time?

I do agree that Television has been Disrupted - but I also think that if we're going to have Change, then we need Change + Direction, and not just Change.

Thanks for posting, and thanks for giving me the opportunity to chime in here.

Posted by: Michael Bailey at October 19, 2008 09:39 AM

October 19, 2008

Thinking about the Future of TV

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