The Jeff Pulver Blog: Still Thinking about the Future of TV...

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November 07, 2008

Still Thinking about the Future of TV...

Yesterday afternoon at the Rosh Pina Festival I shared some of my evolving thoughts and observations regarding the Future of TV.

My basic assertion is that the “Future of TV is TV.” How we get there and what “TV” really is by the time we do get there is up for grabs.

The advent of the Internet has had a profound affect on many industries. As worldwide broadband penetration continues to grow, the worldwide Television industry will be disrupted. In fact it already is. It is just a matter of time before the disintermediation of: studios, broadcasters ( terrestrial, cable and satellite) and consumers becomes that obvious. When that happens, television as we know it will be changed forever.

Looking back at a blog post I wrote back in January 2007, 2008 was The Year of the YouTube Presidency. (The 2008 Election was also great boost for comedy in America.) During 2008, more people consumed presidential related content on the broadband Internet than on Cable, Broadcast TV or Satellite combined.

As the current generation of 16-24 year olds continue to consume Television on the Net, there are mega trends emerging that will forever change the traditional TV industry and will effect the future of advertising and more.

One trend which I first saw happening a few years ago was the advent of TV becoming an “application” rather than a “service.” We now live in an age where consumers no longer need to own a television, an antenna or a TV tuner to watch television content. All someone needs is broadband internet access. The implications of this is huge.

When I look to the future. I believe that over time major studios will gain in power and significance (“Content Remains King”). While this is happening, broadcast TV stations will continue to lose power and their need to exist beyond serving the public good becomes questionable. Over the same period of time, today’s Television Networks and Cable Companies will also lose much of their power and significance. While Cable companies and Telephone companies will continue to have a future to be access providers and perhaps as content distribution agents, I question their willingness to allow themselves to become marginalized providers of Internet access.

The advent of Social Media layered on top of this will only help to accelerate change.

As studios learn about and embrace social media, they will have an increasingly evolving set of tools which they will be able to take advantage of as they empower the distermediation of the networks by leveraging the internet for their content to be made directly available to consumers, and the ability to sell advertising that will increasingly target the specific demographics and profiles of the individual persons consuming the content. Direct to consumer content subscriptions will also become a huge opportunity.

Now some of the changes will be slowed down due to the existing relationships between the studios and the broadcasters and the cable companies. And it is possible that it might take an act of Congress to truly liberate some of these relationships because they go that deep.

So while this is happening, I expect to see a lot of fighting and lobbying around Washington DC where the traditional Broadcast and Television Lobby has strength. The effects of: Fear, Greed and Disruption will usher in a new era in Television.

One day there will be a show as popular as American Idol that will pioneer this space by moving from a major television network to being available only on the Internet. When this happens, television will be forever changed. The way I see this, it is just a matter of time before it will happen. It is not a question of if, just when.

---

Like it or not, Television has been Disrupted. It is just a matter of time before the media industry recognizes this.

Tags: Internet TV, Rosh Pina, Cable TV, Jeff Pulver

Please feel free to share your thoughts and leave a comment.

Posted by jeff on November 7, 2008 08:16 AM | Permalink

Additional resources: #140conf events | Watch the Jeff Pulver Show | Jeff's Qik Videos

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November 07, 2008

Still Thinking about the Future of TV...

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