The Jeff Pulver Blog: VoIP is NOT Dead!

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December 31, 2008

VoIP is NOT Dead!

Today is December 31, 2008 and I find it real interesting some of my friends have declared 2008 as the year that VoIP died.

On the eve of 2009 the promise of VoIP is alive and well and living in the hearts of many people who believe in the future of innovation in communications. Ask many of my friends including: Vint Cert, Henry Sinnreich, Joe Rinde or Daniel Berninger and they would agree with me that one day the vision and the promise of end-to-end IP based communications WILL happen. The Internet communications revolution is STILL happening. In fact, we are living in an Internet Communications Continuum.

According to Wikipedia, Continuum Theory can be defined as: “anything that goes through a gradual transition from one condition, to a different condition, without any abrupt changes or "discontinuities."

And when I refer to the Internet Communications Continuum, I am referring to how I envision the continued evolution of the IP Communications Industry. In my case, this continuum represents all forms of IP Communications, including: VoIP, Instant Messaging, Presence, IP Signaling, Internet TV, Unified Communications, Social Media and more.

We are also living in an industrial revolution unlike anything our parents or grandparents ever experienced. Since 1993 the advent of the Internet has continued to challenge the status quo, directly and indirectly and has brought out great change in many parts of our lives. The fear, greed and disruption that the birth of the VoIP industry had on the traditional telecom industry is directly connected to this.

Back in 1996, because of the accounting rates regime in place at the FCC, consumers paid a high price just to place international phone call from the United States to the rest of the world. (Dollars, not pennies). Just a few years later all of this changed because of the threat of VoIP, back in the days of dialup and before broadband became the norm.

Today, there is accounting rate parity with many countries because of the promise of VoIP as an alternative communication channel. And while many people are crying that there are very thin profits these days in their revenues, I don’t hear many if any consumers complaining that it costs very little to place a call to just about anywhere in the world from the United States these days.

At the first VON conference which took place April 1-3, 1997 at the Ritz Carlton in San Francisco, it was a gathering of people from the worlds of: Computers, Data Networking and Telecom, as well as people from the investment community and people with dreams of what could be possible when all someone needed was some software to launch a communication service. All these years later, while we have accomplished a lot, I believe the best is yet to come.

I wonder how many of the people who actually believe VoIP is dead were involved in the VoIP industry at the time I introduced the concept of “Purple Minutes” back at Spring 2002 VON. I warned people as best as I could that we should use IP based communication platforms to do more than simply replace or substitute existing telecom infrastructure. To the extent that many of the people who were responsible for empowering the communication revolution eventually gave up on changing the world and ended up becoming part of the establishment rather than disrupting it, well maybe for them “VoIP is Dead” but then again, for these people VoIP died a long time ago.

When I look to the future, I believe we are just on the edge of the time when the true promise of VoIP will be realized. In order for these dreams to be realized, it will require a new group of people who believe in challenging the status quo, to stand up and be counted on.

While I am looking for others to join the NEW revolution, I am ready and prepared to do what it takes to continue to push for the promise of what IP Communications can offer.

So while some of my friends may declare that VoIP is Dead, I don’t.

“VoIP is Dead, Long Live VoIP.” Jeff Pulver

Tags: voip, Social Media, Presence, Internet Communications Continuum , instant messaging, Internet TV, VON, IP Communications, Jeff Pulver

Posted by jeff on December 31, 2008 03:56 PM | Permalink

Additional resources: #140conf events | Watch the Jeff Pulver Show | Jeff's Qik Videos

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VoIP is just getting started. Anyone who thinks otherwise is out of there mind. Why would a small business pay for a PRI when they can get SIP trunking for a fraction of the cost? Why would a pay for an analog phone line at my house when I can get a VoIP connection and have free unlimited calling? As more bandwidth is pushed the customer prem whether it be home or business more doors open for telecommunications money saving solutions!

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I agree that VOIP is not dead. There are a couple of things that need the be accomplished before VOIP becomes (more) mainstream:

1. Reliability. Someone had mentioned this earlier, but if the IP providers become serious about keeping their networks more reliable and the IP router & phone developers implement backup power systems in their devices (for a reasonable price, and with the capability to last more than just a few hours) they will be basically in a level playing field with the POTS providers. Most POTS telephones here go dead after 2-3 hours during a commercial power outage (batteries in the local POP stations go dead). The Phone Company says they provide portable generator backup to them, but in reality they rarely do. I worked at a E9-1-1 center for several years, and we filed complaints with the PUC after our local POP went down and we lost all lines, including our 9-1-1 lines SEVERAL times in a year. The big, traditional phone companies still don't get it, and they seem more willing to litigate than compete. Thus there is less advantage to keeping a POTS line, because you're spending more and not really getting any additional benefit.

2. Bandwidth. More work needs to be done to develop better translate and transport voice across IP, and more work needs to be done to develop methods to deliver these IP packets reliably and in a timely fashion. Codecs need to be able to translate the voice down to minuscule bandwidth while maintaining (at minimum)traditional toll-quality voice. Packets need a way to find their destination and be converted with minimum delay, since packet delay adds considerably to user frustration, especially if both ends of a conversation are IP based. These are all things that everyone in the industry already knows, they just need more work.

A previous poster had mentioned that cell phones were a threat to IP. I disagree strongly. I believe cell phone reliability is going to continue to be an issue. For an industry that is considerably older than VOIP, it really isn't that far ahead. In fact, the current coverage template of a cell phone tower has shrunk over the last few years due to a shift in operating frequency. Cell phones are limited by RF range, tower base station capacity, and backhaul connectivity. Many places I go I find RF holes where I cannot place or maintain a call. And, during and after a recent (moderate) ice storm here, several sites failed due to being either overloaded or loss of backhaul (due to batteries running out at local telco POPs, as mentioned above). How can cell phones be my savior when in even small to moderate issues take the systems out or overload them?

It used to be I could ALWAYS count on my POTS line being available to me. Now, the drive to save pennies has put the telcos on the same field as VOIP. So why pay more to them? At least with VOIP I can redirect calls to another destination within a few minutes should I need to do that, and have my telephone calls come to me wherever I decide to set up shop.

Posted by: Ben G at January 25, 2009 04:07 PM

VoIP is definitely not dead, or going anywhere. We run Asterisk at work which enables our employees to work from anywhere they take their phone or a softphone to. I have seen some great implementations of it with customers and in case studies, like what has been done in Iraq.

I think as soon as Internet connections gain a bit more bandwidth (fios and higher speed dsl) and reliability, we'll only see more and more companies switching to full voip systems. That has been the only holdup in many situations, that POTS has actually been cheaper for outside lines than the internet connection to handle all the bandwidth.

Posted by: Scott Chester at January 5, 2009 11:59 AM

Jeff,
VoIP technology will never go away, but the PBX value proposition could easily be made obsolete. I think cell phones are the silent killer... they killed the pda, the phone booth, and have their sites on many other items including the voip PBX.

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Posted by: Dave Michels at January 2, 2009 03:12 PM

Nice post Jeff, and glad to see you posting again about VoIP. Totally agree that a lot of the promising apps we're seeing now are the Purple Minutes you were evangelizing at VON. I had no idea my article would generate so much commentary, but it definitely hit a nerve, and it looks like we're on the same page. A lot of others obviously are not, and I'm surprised at how much disdain a lot of people have for VoIP.

Posted by: Jon Arnold at January 2, 2009 09:50 AM

Great post, Jeff! I agree with you 100%. It seems as though we're only at the dawn of communications-enabled applications, which is really where the promise of VoIP lies. Your "Purple Minutes" concept has (at least IMHO) always been right. There are whole new markets to conquer with comm-enabled apps, such as enterprises and broadband-enabled consumers. These would seem to be opportunities far too vibrant for a "dead" technology.

There are challenges, to be sure, but one interesting thing about VoIP (similar to other protocols that run on IP networks) is that it is both an enabler and cost reducer - so there can be a justification for investment in VoIP at both ends of the economic cycle.

It's going to be interesting over the next couple of years to see how VoIP is used to promote flexibility and reduce costs in the corporate world. There needs to be some innovative thinking, and a significant amount of application development work, but the basic tools and platforms are starting to appear on the desktops and phones of the corporate environment.

Finally, to your point about the "continuum," it seems to me that the next generation of VoIP growth really isn't just VoIP; it's unified communications, most particularly including video and collaboration. Again, the main reason I see this happening is that the tools and platform are becoming part of the standard desktop/mobile environment, without the requirement for a lot of extra investment during lean times.

Keep up the good blogging and happy new year!

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Posted by: twojeanonse at January 1, 2009 08:10 AM

Reb Jacob,
Ebay does publish raw data. Skype Journal publishes analysis all the time, such as here concerning Skype calls initiated on mobile http://skypejournal.com/2008/11/getting-closer-to-true-numbers-on-skype.html
If you search the skype journal archives you will find a lot of data.
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Posted by: Moshe Maeir at January 1, 2009 08:08 AM

Reb Jeff,
As always, very well said. But continue on...have you seen any real innovation beyond cheap minutes?

Inquiring minds want to know!

VoIP is not dead -- the question is whether outside of Skype whether it ever had real mass adoption. Would be nice to know the breakdown of Skype minutes in term of how much of their traffic is IP-to-POTS and how much is IP-to-IP. Anyone have that info?

Happy New Year,
Jacob

Posted by: Jacob Ner-David at January 1, 2009 07:31 AM

Jeff,
Of course what you are saying is true, how could anyone say otherwise, unless of course you equate VoiP with cheap calls. As I wrote a few days ago in my blog http://flatplanetphone.com/wordpress/2008/12/30/voip-is-far-from-dead/
VoIP is all about unlimited functionality and innovation. Our pal Jon Arnold wrote a similar post http://voipservices.tmcnet.com/feature/articles/47911-voip-2008-im-not-dead.htm

Long Live Innovation!

Posted by: Moshe Maeir at January 1, 2009 03:39 AM

Jeff - You've nailed it again. When we figure out how to leverage VoIP to put voice communications "in band" (or simply in the actual activity the person is trying to do) and focus on the application VoIP will transform from - Why would I switch to Why would I use anything else.

IMHO we've spent too much time hyping the technology - this has resulted in an "alternate network telco" business model which has changed nothing.
There is value to be had when you leverage communications (particularly voice) toward solving real world problems. In order to get there we have to forget about the network and focus on the application.

Posted by: Brian Roy at December 31, 2008 04:00 PM

Jeff,

It's far from dead. In Iraq we rely almost entirely on VOIP. It is so much easier to setup and customize than POTS and gives us flexibility we could only dream of prior to VOIP.

I have setup VOIP via Point-to-Point radio in applications that is just incredible.

On the homefront, Skype and other platforms like allow us to have communications as foreseen by Arthur C. Clarke. My family has picked up on this, finally, and they marvel at the clarity of the audio and even the video.

Posted by: Dan Mosqueda at December 31, 2008 03:54 PM

Great post Jeff... thank you for all you've done to pioneer this technology into an industry.

Posted by: Fred Posner at December 31, 2008 03:50 PM

December 31, 2008

VoIP is NOT Dead!

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