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March 08, 2002
The Pulver Report - March 8, 2002
THE PULVER REPORT(TM)
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In this Issue:
- Heard on the Net
People on the Move
Companies on the Move
- IP Telephony Jobs
- Industry Recovery will be evident at Spring 2002 VON in Seattle
- Telephony Unplugged 2002: New trends in Wireless Conversion
- Personal Call Control - Next Generation of Services for RBOCs
- In search of: Cool Applications
- Follow up: Where do you do your thinking?
- Spring 2002 SIP Summit: May 7-9 in Las Vegas
- VON Europe 2002: June 10-13 in Helsinki - Registration is now open
- Pulver Report Readers' Mailing List
- Call for Speakers: VON Asia 2002
- pulver.com 2002 Conference Calendar
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========================
Heard on the Net
========================
People on the Move:
- Jeff Lawrence left Intel.
- Timothy Jasionowski left Qwest.
- Jacob Bridger left Surf Communications and joined Radvision
as VP Marketing.
- Mark Patinkin joined Modern Digital Communications
as Vice President of Sales, Carrier Services.
- Daniel Cohen left GTS and joined Gallery IP Telephony as
Director, EMEA Business Development.
Companies on the Move:
- BroadSoft raised $19.5 million in additional funding for
their Series C round.
- Telrad Tenecs Merges with congruency. Telrad Tenecs shareholders
will hold 52% and congruency shareholders will hold 48% of the
merged company.
(Please email: people@pulver.com to report a change in your
position. Please refer to: "People on the Move" in the subject)
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IP Telephony Jobs from: ( http://pulver.com/jobs )
Now that 2002 is upon us, we are looking for continued recovery
inside the IP Communications Industry. As your company has job
openings during 2002, please consider posting them with pulver.com.
please email: jobs@pulver.com for job posting information.
Recent job posting (as of March 18, 2002):
- Vice President of Sales, USA - Technology Division, MediaRing
If you are interested in pursuing this position, please visit
( http://pulver.com/jobs ) for full details.
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Industry Recovery will be evident at Spring 2002 VON in Seattle
Based on the activity which I've recently observed when our "early bird"
discount for Spring 2002 VON ( http://pulver.com/von ) ended in
February,
and after speaking to a few vendors in our space, I believe that signs
that a recovery is currently taking place within the IP Communication
Industry are true. One strong positive sign is that carriers like:
AT&T,
Bell Canada, Korea Telecom, NTT, Sprint, Telus and Verizon are once
again
sending delegates to Spring 2002 VON. Our international delegates are
back and already over 25 countries will be represented. Sprint Wholesale
recently joined the list of companies exhibiting at VON for the first
time and I believe this is a strong sign of continuing carrier
commitment
to IP and to SIP technologies.
The other good news is that Enterprise customers will also be
attending VON, some for the first time. One level of disruption that
is continuing to get attention are the iPBX / ipCentrex vendors. A few
RBOCs have recently put out RFIs for a large number of ports and around
the US a number of municipalities and universities have already
committed
to the equivalent of a "fork lift" upgrade from TDM Centrex services
to IP based services. I'm looking forward to seeing John Dix from
Network World hosting a special "iPBX Showdown" during lunch at VON on
April 9th.
If you are vendor in the IP Communication space and believe that the
sales process will not be happening until Q3/Q4 of 2002, your decision
not to exhibit at events and attend industry conferences may turn out
to be the decision that competitively disadvantaged your company
in 2002.
Overall I believe the recovery will become evident later this year
when people realize the level of business which started to take place
in Q2 of 2002. Business may not close until later this year or early
next year, but the days of the 18 month sell cycles should be behind
us.
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Telephony Unplugged 2002: New trends in Wireless Conversion
An update to an earlier pulver.com study on wireless conversion reveals
that ongoing price increases for local service and ongoing decreases
for cell phone services give wireless a 35% price advantage up from
a 1% advantage only one year ago.
The report, entitled "Telephony Unplugged", compares the monthly charges
for wireline service provided by Verizon with wireless service provided
by Nextel. The report points out that in the 16 years since the FCC
issued the first cellular license the competitive wireless industry
found ways to discount the cost of their services 92% while the
cost of local calling rose 72% along with inflation.
The wireless industry has erased the 20 fold wireline price advantage
that existed in 1984 completely changing the business case for
who represents a potential wireless customer.
The findings indicate home users might now choose wireless over
wireline, in particular, for second lines to save money and obtain
mobility for free. If only 10% of residential telephone customers
convert to wireless it will double the size of the wireless industry.
Cell phones cost over $3000 and airtime cost more than $1.30 per
minute in 1984. Carriers ended their first year with fewer than
100,000 customers in the US. Inexpensive handsets now allow carriers
to distribute many cell phones for free. Airtime that can go for
10 cents per minute helps attract 67,000 new customers per day.
The industry serves over 100 million subscribers, generates 50
billion dollars in revenues, and continues to grow at over
20% per year. The emergence of the wireless industry
created 160,000 jobs
As long as wireless remained even slightly more expensive than
wireline, the status quo seemed stable with people favoring
use of wireline phones over wireless phones where possible.
The FCC Report, "Trends in Telephone Service", estimates
total local wireline revenues of $104 billion. The CTIA Wireless
Survey estimates industry revenues in 2001 of $55 billion.
Continuation of historical wireless industry 20% growth rate
suggests wireless revenues of $77 billion for 2003. If an
additional 25% of residential customers convert to wireless
as the least cost alternative, it will yield an additional
26 million customers for the wireless industry. These new
subscribers represent a potential $14 billion revenue
windfall given the CTIA Wireless Survey average monthly
local bill of $45. The outcome means annual wireless revenues
of $91 billion and an associated retreat of local wireline
revenues to $90 billion by 2005.
The 2002 Telephony Unplugged research report is available for
free by visiting: ( http://192.246.69.250/pulverslides )
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Personal Call Control - Next Generation of Services for RBOCs
I've been spending some time thinking about some ideas I had a couple of
years ago about the "personal central office" and the need for
individuals to have their own personal call control services hosted
their local telecom provider.
Until recently I thought these concepts wouldn't get that much traction
with the consumer population, but I recently started observing
how personal service creation environments are empowering consumers to
do things which used to be a manual process. This said, I am now
hopeful in a few years my local service provider will be able to host
my own XML scripts which even my kids could update which would control
the call flow of the incoming phone traffic into my home. If it were
up to me, I'd call this service "Personal Call Control".
The renewed inspiration came from a service I found out about currently
being offered from the from New York State's Department of Motor Vehicle
website. Their website allows people the opportunity to request their
own personalized license plate directly from their web site
( http://www.nydmv.state.ny.us/personalplates/default.html ).
Growing up, this process used to take weeks and whenever I filled out
the DMV forms and mailed them to Albany, I never knew which, if any,
of the license plates I choose would be assigned to me. Given that
this "service creation" environment has become automated and is now
available to residents of New York State who are interested
in personalized license plates, I believe we are just a few years away
from having the same concept apply to consumers of the ILECs, where the
ILEC will be able to provide personalized call control for each
individual
customer, albeit, for a small nominal charge.
Look for similar services to also become available for Enterprises users
as the RBOC marketplace starts to adopt iPBX and ipCentrex technologies.
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In search of: Cool Applications
These days while I believe email is still the "killer app" for IP based
communications, voice is a strong second. To the extent IP based voice
offers nothing different than what PSTN voice offered 30 years ago, all
we have done is replace technology without taking advantage of the
platform or the opportunity to implement change.
At past VON events I've spoken about my concept that regular PSTN
minutes
represent "black and white" minutes and that "purple" minutes represent
IP based enhanced services minutes. Purple minutes to me are the minutes
generated by doing things which were never before practical and/or
possible without the use of IP.
To the extent our friends in the industry use IP based technology to
generate replacement Black & White minutes, there is really very little
value add that IP represents. And in some cases this is why business has
been bad as some vendor's products don't make the case as to why switch
from TDM to IP based technologies.
I'd appreciate it if you could let me know if you've recently seen any
cool killer apps that generate "purple" minutes. Referencing your own
product/company/friend is fine so long as these products really exist
(having a customer base would be cool too).
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Follow up: Jeff's Question: Where do you do your thinking?
Last month I wrote:
> For me, it seems I do most of my thinking for the day while I'm in the
> shower. Maybe I come up with an idea when I'm driving to work and on a
> rare occasion, maybe while I'm supposedly sleeping. I'd appreciate
> knowing where the readers of the Pulver Report do their best thinking.
> The reason I mention this is that while I spend the majority of my
time
> either at the office or offsite at events, these commercial
environments
> are not conducive for thinking and this just seems like an oxymoron to
> me. What am I missing?
Based on the feedback of the readers who spoke up, it seems that most
of the readership agrees with my observations. Now this does makes sense
to me but at the same time I'm a bit puzzled as to what it does take to
create a work environment which encourages people to think and be
creative?
Personally I know that I'm not very creative when I'm feeling pressure
and I'm under a time deadline to get something done. On the other hand,
my
hope for the future is that we are able to create work environments
which
optimizes our collective creativity and allows us to be as productive
as possible given the circumstances.
I have to wonder if "work" has always been like this or was there ever a
time and place when most people had a chance to do their deep thinking
at work and not in the shower or nature walks.
Below are some of the comments received:
1. "I believe you're really asking where we are when we come up with a
good idea (since we think all the time). For me, as with you, the
shower
is #1 (is it the hot water on the brain or the mesmerizing effect of the
shower?). #2 is while jogging (also hot and metronomic)."
2. "Your question fascinated me. I do concur that my most revolutionary
thoughts (@my level) / seeds of a good presentations have linkage with
shower. My wife observes that my shower timings are stretchable. Many
times she has no clue why I come out early sometimes (especially when
she
is dressing up for a party after sending me for shower) and take more
time in other instance. The intensity of thoughts @ the shower subside
during dressing up only to show up during driving. In fact the thoughts
would express in a highly Poetic and Rhyming structure during this
time. I must confess that I had used a feature in my Mobile to record
these while driving. I would be so inundated observing the outpour of
thoughts that, I wake up just when the destination came close. The whole
process of driving was so mechanical that I can hardly recollect any
details on the road. I think only 0.01 % of these thoughts get ever
translated to something seeable much less into action as I am wearing
these golden shackles and have to get onto run-of-the-mill soon.
I recollect here a line from Deepak Chopra's book "Creating Affluence"
The thoughts also originate from the same place where nature goes to
create Galaxies, Nebulas, rainforest.. Due to deep urbanization and
emphasis on money as indicator of productivity, there is a lot of
disconnect between Man and Nature.
Bottom line: The commercial surroundings are anti-creativity. Let's
bring
some nature back to our working environment"
3. "Thanks for another great issue of the Pulver Report. You ask the
question "where do readers do their best thinking?" and comment that you
find the office a difficult place to think.
You are correct about the office - too many distractions to think
creatively and freely without the aid of a brainstorming group or some
other structured thinking aid. The shower or while driving are great
times
to think because of the phenomenon of "sub-conscious work". While the
majority of your brain is involved in another task, say driving, the
remainder of your available brain power puts itself to work on some
challenge or question you have been mulling. Sooner or later the answer
or
idea pops into your conscious mind!
Have you ever tried to remember something, given up and moved on with
your
day, working and taking phone calls then, suddenly, the information you
needed just "comes to you" as they say? That's sub-conscious work. I use
it extensively to figure out answers to difficult questions or come up
with fresh ideas. By thinking about the question calmly for a few
minutes
before engaging in an activity that requires a fair level of
concentration, I find I can "program" my sub-conscious to work on that
problem. It doesn't always work but it has a pretty good success rate.
Where do I do my thinking? Mostly when I am on the ice playing goal
tender
in my local ice-hockey league or when driving.
4. I really liked the content in this month's issue. Thank you.
As for the best place to think, a conference or trade show is the worst,
since there is no quiet place or enough time for observation and
introspection -- two key elements to thinking those deep, random
thoughts.
Best place for me is outside in nature, somewhere away from planes and
trucks and cars and manufactured noise. Taking a hike, a long walk, even
a
swim occupies the body and frees the mind. That and a great glass of
wine.
5. "While in my morning run around the neighborhood... It's almost
impossible to do any thinking around the hustle and bustle of the
office..."
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Pulver Report Readers' Mailing List - great way to meet other readers
of the report.
I recently setup a new interactive mailing list for the readers of
the Pulver Report. The purpose of this list is to provide
community and a forum for discussion for the readers of
the Pulver Report.
To subscribe to the mailing list, visit:
( http://listserv.pulver.com/archives/pulver-rpt.html )
or via email:
send email to listserv@listserv.pulver.com
with the line "subscribe pulver-rpt" in your message body.
No subject line is required.
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Spring 2002 SIP Summit: May 7-9 in Las Vegas
The Spring 2002 SIP Summit ( http://pulver.com/sipsummit )
will be taking place May 9-11 in Las Vegas during Spring 2002
NetWorld+Interop.
The Spring 2002 SIP Summit will be bringing together the
SIP Industry, including the people responsible for inventing
SIP and driving the adoption of SIP within the IP Communications
Industry.
Since this event will be taking place during Network+Interop,
delegates attending Spring 2002 SIP Summit will also have
access to the N+I show floor which will include a special
SIP Pavilion. (If you would like to exhibit in the SIP Pavilion
please let me know.)
The conference schedule is posted at:
( http://pulver.com/sipsummit/schedule.html ).
If you would to like take advantage of our "early bird"
pricing, please visit: ( http://pulver.com/sipsummit/register.html )
and register by March 22nd.
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VON Europe 2002: June 10-13 in Helsinki - Registration is now open
Registration is now open for VON Europe 2002, taking place
June 10-13 in Helsinki. The draft schedule for VON Europe 2002 has
just been posted to: ( http://pulver.com/europe2002 ).
Co-located at VON Europe will be the Summer 2002 VON Developers
Confernece ( http://pulver.com/developers ), together with
Europe 2002 Presence and Instant Messaging ( http://pulver.com/pim ).
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Call for Speakers: VON Asia 2002
VON Asia 2002 ( http://pulver.com/asia2002 ) will be taking
place July 22-24 in Hong Kong.
We are currently looking for ideas for speakers and content
to be discussed at VON Asia. The deadline for VON Asia
submissions is March 28th.
Please visit: ( http://pulver.com/speak/submit.html ) to
submit your speaking proposal.
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pulver.com 2002 Conference Calendar
( http://pulver.com/conference )
"Events for the IP Communications Industry" (tm)
April 8-11 - Spring 2002 VON, Seattle, WA
( http://pulver.com/von )
April 8-10 - Spring 2002 Location Based Services Summit, Seattle,
WA
( http://pulver.com/lbs )
May 7-9 - Spring 2002 SIP Summit, Las Vegas, NV
( http://pulver.com/sip )
May 21-23 - Connectivity 2002 - Boston, MA
( http://pulver.com/connectivity2002 )
May 29-31 - EAT'M 2002, Las Vegas, NV
( http://www.eat-m.com )
June 10-13 - VON Europe 2002, Helsinki, Finland
( http://pulver.com/europe2002 )
June 10-12 - VON Europe Developers Conference 2002
Helsinki, Finland
( http://pulver.com/developers )
+
June 11-13 - Europe 2002 Presence and Instant Messaging
( http://pulver.com/pim )
July 22-24 - VON Asia 2002, Hong Kong, CHINA
( http://pulver.com/asia2002 )
October 7-10 - Fall 2002 VON, Atlanta, GA
October 8-9 - Fall 2002 VON Enterprise Forum
October 10-11 - Fall 2002 VON Developers Conference
October 7-9 - Fall 2002 Location Based Services Summit, Atlanta, GA
October 8-10 - Fall 2002 PIM, Atlanta, GA
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Please send your comments and feedback regarding this issue of
The Pulver Report to: jeff@pulver.com.
Jeff Pulver Tel. +1.631.547.0800
The Pulver Report Fax. +1.631.396.3996
March 18, 2002 http://pulver.com/reports
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(c) 2002 pulver.com, Inc., All Rights Reserved
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